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3 months ago
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Southern California has broken the record for the most magnitude 4 and above earthquakes in a single year after a magnitude 4.7 earthquake and five aftershocks rocked Malibu on Thursday.
The average number of magnitude 4 and above earthquakes for this region is about eight per year, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismologist Lucy Jones said in a televised Q&A following the earthquake.
'So far, we've had 14 in Southern California - the largest previous year was 13.'
The unusually high number of quakes in recent weeks IS RAISING FEARS THE Increased seismic activity mean the region's long overdue 'big one' is coming.
Three earthquakes of magnitude 4 or higher have occurred in Southern California in the last month. The record-breaking seismic activity has locals worried about 'the big one'
'The big one' refers to a hypothetical, high-magnitude earthquake that could one day occur along the San Andreas fault in California, which spans 800 miles up and down the state's coastline.
Researchers have estimated that such a quake would cause roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage.
Scientists are not able to predict earthquakes, but they have long warned about the inevitability of 'the big one.'
In fact, California is overdue for it. Major earthquakes typically occur every 150 to 200 years, but the San Andreas fault hasn't had one in over three centuries.
The recent uptick in Southern California's seismic activity has had locals wondering whether 'the big one' is coming. Many took to X, formerly Twitter, to share their concerns.
'The big one is coming fr [for real]… this is the third earthquake in how many weeks???' one X user wrote following the magnitude 4.7 quake that occurred Thursday morning.
If the Big One did strike, 'it would be a matter of a few tens of seconds before the shaking from a San Andreas event that ruptures the segments closest to Los Angeles reach our urban areas,' Jonathan Stewart with the University of California, Los Angeles previously told DailyMail.com.
This region has seen a record-breaking number of earthquakes in recent weeks.
On August 6, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake hit Bakersfield and was felt over one hundred miles away at Dodgers Stadium, where nearly 50,000 people were attending a game. Fortunately, no one was injured.
The monster San Andreas Fault splits California from south to north, caused by two tectonic plates slowly grinding against each other - always on the edge of producing 'the big one'
Seismologist Lucy Jones said that Southern California's recent uptick in seismic activity isn't a sign that the San Andreas fault is about to blow
Days later on August 12, a magnitude 4.4 earthquake struck Pasadena in 'essentially the same location' as a magnitude 3.5 quake that occurred in June, Jones wrote on X after the event.
IS CALIFORNIA AT RISK OF A DEVASTATING MEGAQUAKE?
The U.S. Geological Survey has warned the risk of 'the big one' hitting California has increased dramatically.
Researchers analysed data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
'We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,' said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.
'But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.'
Seismologist Lucy Jones from the US Geological Survey warned that people need to accept the fact catastrophe is imminent, and prepare themselves.
Dr Jones said our decision to not accept it will only mean more people suffer as scientists warn the 'Big One' is now overdue to hit California.
Thursday's quake was initially reported as magnitude 5.1, but was later downgraded to magnitude 4.7. It was centered five miles north of Malibu and ran seven miles deep, according to the USGS.
Minutes later, a 2.8 magnitude aftershock arrived, followed by four more ranging from magnitude 2.7 to 3.5 over the course of about an hour. There have been no reports of significant damage or injuries thus far.
This most recent event marks the 14th magnitude 4 or higher earthquake in Southern California this year.
But Jones answered 'no' to the question of whether this heightened activity means 'the big one' is coming, according to the New York Times. Frequent smaller tremblers do not mean that a major earthquake is more likely, she said.
In fact, despite the recent uptick in quakes, Southern California's overall seismic activity has been relatively quiet since 1993, she said.
This year, however, the region has seen a noticeable increase in the number of earthquake series in which at least one quake was magnitude 4 or higher, Jones added.
As of mid-August, there had been more than a dozen such series. This is a significant increase compared to previous years - there were only six in 2023, two in 2022 and four in 2021.
But Jones said these numbers are 'not yet statistically significant,' meaning that experts can't be sure whether the increase is part of a larger trend, or just a blip.
Therefore, scientists can't infer any information about 'the big one' from these latest quakes. But advancements in earthquake forecasting could eventually help us narrow down a timeline for when it might strike.
For example, a new study has identified a link between the strength of faults and the size of earthquakes, which could provide a way to determine how close an area is to facing a major seismic event.
The researchers clarified that this doesn't mean we can forecast the exact timing of a future earthquake.
But the findings could help scientists estimate when a fault has reached a critical point 'where just a tiny extra nudge of force is needed for the fault to slip,' said lead author Satoshi Matsumoto, Director of Kyushu University’s Institute of Seismology and Volcanology.
'This information is vital to know in order to be prepared for major earthquakes,' he added.
