'England to monster Scotland? Where's the evidence?'

Guinness Men's Six Nations: England v Scotland

Venue: Allianz Stadium Date: Saturday, 22 February Kick-off: 16:45 GMT

Coverage: Listen live on BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio Scotland & BBC Sounds; text commentary and highlights on BBC Sport website and app; watch on ITV1

You have to wonder if there has been something in the water in England this past week, a strange substance that causes loss of perspective and certain delusions.

Courtney Lawes, the wonderful former England forward, wrote that he couldn't see "Scotland living with England" provided the hosts produce a seven or eight out of 10 performance at Twickenham on Saturday.

"It's about time we showed them we are the better team," he added.

That's a bold view, given that Scotland have won the past four meetings and have lost only one of seven Calcutta Cups under Gregor Townsend, outscoring their big rivals by 19 tries to 13 in the process. But anyway…

"I simply cannot see England losing," wrote Sir Clive Woodward, under a headline predicting a monstering of the Scotland forwards.

This England pack is impressive, and perhaps they are about to take Scotland to the cleaners, but as yet we have not seen much of a sustained capacity for inflicting beatings on too many rival packs in this kind of arena. England 2003, they are not.

Woodward, in fairness, did not write the headline, but he did come out with this: "England will win with plenty to spare."

Now, they might. Scotland might lose the physical battle and might be unable to unleash the men who have destroyed England in this fixture.

On the other hand, Scotland might create merry hell again. Given recent history, you would be tempted to go with the latter rather than the former. There is actual evidence to back it up.

On what basis will England win with plenty to spare? Because the game is at Twickenham? Maybe, but Scotland have won two and drawn one of the past three Calcutta Cups in London.

Because England beat France? A fantastic win and a source of momentum, no question, but is there not a slight case to be made that France's biggest problem for half of that Test was… France?

Because England have turned a corner under the coaching of Steve Borthwick? Well, they might have.

They have stellar players and every bookmaker in the land makes them hot favourites to win on Saturday, but the same was said about them coming of age when they beat Ireland last season, a brilliant win but, as it turned out, a false dawn.

Amid the serious analysis, some of the stuff that's been said and written about this Scotland team and the landscape it exists in has been weird.

In the past week, in various outlets, Scotland have been portrayed as weaklings up front (they were outgunned by Ireland, but it was one game against a phenomenal team); incapable of challenging the rugby hierarchy (er, four wins out of four); and undeserving of a place at rugby's top table. Eh?

Apparently, they manage to rouse themselves only for games against England, their over-performances fuelled by hatred of the Red Rose. Hmmm.

In the next breath there's talk of all the South Africans and Australians in the team and the slow but steady reduction in the team's Scottishness.

Which is it, though? A team that comes across as thunderously Scottish against England while not really being Scottish because of the players who weren't born in Scotland? You can't have it both ways.

Also, it seems, there is supporter apathy. Scotland have won nothing in 26 years and yet Murrayfield attracted 60,000 fans against Portugal last season and is a sell-out against pretty much everybody else. Apathy?

There has been great analysis and the usual knockabout stuff that is essential to Calcutta Cup week, but the hot takes in the build-up have bordered on the barmy.

"It smacks a little of fear of five in a row," says former Scotland hooker Fraser Brown, a veteran of five Calcutta Cups, the 2023 win at Twickenham among them.

"The general theme will help create the type of underdog mentality that Scotland have really used to drive performances over the last seven to eight years.

"The favourites tag still doesn't sit well with Scotland so the English media are probably doing the coaches and the squad a favour."

So where will this game be won and lost?

"The strength of England's bench forwards might be what decides it," says Brown, who points to injuries to second rows Scott Cummings and Max Williamson and the absence of hooker George Turner, who started all four of the four in a row.

"For Scotland, the scrum will have to be good. It's creaked over the first two weeks at times but it needs to be solid and I imagine Zander [Fagerson] will be on the pitch for as close to 80 as he can manage.

"The lineout needs to improve as well. Scotland just need ball. They didn't have a platform against Ireland.

"The breakdown will be massive. It wasn't good against Ireland or Italy and England have a lot of jackal threats starting and on the bench.

"It won't just be about losing the ball on the floor; Scotland can't afford slow rucks. Quick ball will kill England's defence."

And what of this notion that Scotland's pack couldn't punch its way through a paper bag? Short shrift is given to that by Brown.

"Scotland's forwards got overpowered against Ireland, but no-one was saying that in the autumn when they went toe-to-toe with the Springboks for 50 minutes, or when they battered Ireland last year, or after they won the last four Calcutta Cups," he says.

Scotland fell away that day, says Brown, but England are not as good as Ireland. He thinks it is going to be close.

No Woodwardian hutzpah? "Can we just retire him?" he replies. "His opinion on the modern game is outdated and lacks education." Not a fan, then.