Hurricane Priscilla eyes six US states in its 'cone of uncertainty' as Category 2 storm shifts paths

Hurricane Priscilla's path through the Pacific has shifted, and forecasters warn that several southwestern states could see storms and floods within hours. 

The National Hurricane Center uses a 'cone of uncertainty' to show the likely path of a hurricane like Priscilla on maps, with the cone widening to cover areas where the storm might go over the next three to five days.

Their latest cone revealed that the Category 2 storm's path is expected to shift north, turning Priscilla towards land on Thursday.

Spaghetti models revealed that Priscilla will likely barrel over Mexico and reach as far inland as Southern California and Arizona before it begins to break up.

Several other states in the Southwest, including New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Nevada, have been warned to expect thunderstorms and flash floods due to the moisture being pulled inland from Priscilla starting tomorrow and lasting through Sunday.

Parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah could see up to four inches of rain between Thursday afternoon and Saturday night.

AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva noted that Priscilla's impact on Arizona could be particularly severe on Thursday night, with heavy rain and flooding forecasted throughout the state.

The intense downpours could end up doubling the 1.5 inches of rainfall places like Flagstaff, Arizona, typically get during an average October.

Meteorologists added that another tropical system is likely to form right behind Priscilla, potentially creating even more dangerous weather along the West Coast that extends into next week.

National Hurricane Center forecasters said there is an 80 percent chance of a tropical wave currently near the southern tip of Mexico becoming the next Pacific storm, named Raymond.

The AccuWeather team explained that a dip in the natural jet stream, which flows over the US, has been pulling Priscilla in a northeastern direction, steering the hurricane from the Pacific to the Southwest.

It's expected to do the same to Raymond as the potential Pacific storm forms and moves up the Mexican coast.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said: 'The next storm that may develop behind Priscilla, and some of Priscilla's moisture, is likely to result in several days of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.'

Priscilla has already hammered parts of Mexico with strong winds and downpours along the country's west coast, and areas closer to the US have issued a tropical storm watch as the storm nears.

This includes the major tourist destination Cabo San Lucas, which welcomes more than three million US tourists each year.

With two months still to go in the Pacific hurricane season, Priscilla is the 16th named storm and the ninth to become a hurricane, shattering predictions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Earlier this year, the agency predicted a 'below-normal season' for the eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms, five to 10 hurricanes, and up to five major hurricanes.

The storms are arriving just as the Southwest is coming out of its annual monsoon season, which lasts from June to September.

Local forecasters noted that it was wetter than average in parts of New Mexico, like Albuquerque, and northern Arizona, with record flash flood warnings being issued.

The monsoon season in the Southwest is a period when the region gets a big chunk of its yearly rain in short, intense bursts.

It's driven by the land heating up in summer, creating low-pressure areas in the region. Meanwhile, winds shift and pull in moist air from the Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico) and the Pacific Ocean.

This moist air clashes with the hot, desert air, leading to thunderstorms that dump massive amounts of rain, sometimes in less than two hours.

'Flash floods happen very quickly. Since the Southwest doesn't typically get as much rain, it can take only a small amount of rain to cause a flash flood,' DaSilva warned.

This October downpour from Priscilla is a rare event in the Southwest, but it may end up benefiting some areas suffering through severe droughts this year.

This includes parts of southern Arizona, eastern Utah, and central Colorado.