Hurricane watchers give surprising update about storm Nadine

Americans have been captivated by storm Nadine that had potential to form into a hurricane and hit Florida as the state was still recovering from Milton.

The storm, formally known as Invest A94L, has been brewing in the Atlantic for more than a week, gaining momentum as it moved west toward the US. 

The National Hurricane Center showed Tuesday that the low-pressure system had a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm.

But NHC's Thursday update suggested Nadine could be dead - the storm has a low likelihood of 30 percent in the next seven days.

For the system to be named Nadine it would have to exceed wind speeds of 39 miles per hour,  but it is moving at just 20 miles per hour.

The NHC report, however, was likely welcomed by the Caribbean islands that were predicted to see Nadine make landfall and unleash life-threatening effects.

While the hurricane tracking agency showed the odds are not in the storm's favor, meteorologists have told DailyMail.com that 'Mother Nature is unpredictable.'

'Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized,' the NHC stated in a 2pm ET update.

'Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph,' the agency added.

The storm should pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.

'Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend,' the NHC said.

The last potential of a future Nadine came Tuesday evening when AccuWeather forecasters issued a tropical storm alert, showing the systems could bring 'life-threatening' mudslides to Puerto Rico and power outages in the Dominic Republic.

Rainfall was predicted to reach up to 20 inches in the northern areas of Hispaniola, along with 90-mile-per-hour winds.

Experts also said that onshore winds from the tropical rainstorm would cause 'rough surf, rip current and coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast from the Florida Keys and South Florida through coastal Georgia.'

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: 'We have been tracking a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa earlier this month.

'This feature has been showing some signs of organization in recent days but could be entering a much more favorable area for tropical development this week as it nears the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean.'

Even though it's still possible that AL94 could become tropical storm Nadine, experts have said that it's unlikely.

'A forecaster at the NHC takes into account multiple computer model forecasts, along with observations of the clouds and wind structure of the tropical disturbance, in order to assign probabilities of formation,' Brian Tang, an associate professor of atmospheric science at New York's University at Albany, told Newsweek.

'A 20 to 30 percent chance of formation indicates small odds that the tropical disturbance will form into a tropical depression or storm over the next week,' he said.

A storm is classified as a tropical depression when its wind circulation becomes  organized into a cyclone and it achieves wind speeds of up to 38 mph.

Tropical storms are stronger. they form when a cyclone achieves wind speeds between 39 and 73 mph.

A cyclone with wind speeds over 74 mph is considered as a hurricane. Hurricanes that reach Category 3 or higher are considered 'major' and have wind speeds above 110 mph.

Category 3 Milton made landfall on Florida's west coast on October 9, hammering the state with over 100 mph winds, a barrage of tornadoes, catastrophic storm surge and up to 18 inches of rain in some areas. 

At least 17 people were killed by the storm, with some estimates climbing as high as 24.

Milton came on the heels of Hurricane Helene, which struck the southeast US two weeks prior and inundated states up and down the coast with flooding. 

Helene cost between $30.5 billion and $47.5 billion in total damages across 16 states, according to CoreLogic, and has so far claimed the lives of more than 230 people, with countless others still reported missing.

While the chances that storm system AL94 will become the next named storm are dwindling, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over, experts warn. 

The season runs through November 30, and conditions are still favorable for storm formation.