Meteorologists reveal how the weather could sway the presidential election

In less than two weeks, Americans will decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris will be the first female president, or former President Trump will win a second term.

But experts say another factor will play a big role in this decision: the weather.

In the wake of hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the East Coast from Florida to Virginia, many voters are still in recovery mode and may not be able to get to the polls. 

Helene's devastating impact on swing state North Carolina could have an especially strong influence on the election, political strategist Bradley Tusk told DailyMail.com.

'North Carolina is one of the seven states that will determine who the next president of the United States is going to be,' he said. 'You can't really have much higher stakes than this.'

Elsewhere in the US, even your average rainstorm could have a significant influence on voter turnout and mood, Tusk said. 

Research has shown that rainfall negatively impacts voter turnout. One study estimates that for every centimeter of rain that falls on voting day, turnout falls by 0.95 percentage points. 

While that may seem like an incremental impact, heavy rain or extreme weather in a swing state could, in theory, reduce turnout significantly enough to alter the results of an election. 

A rainy day can also induce a bad mood. When an undecided voter goes to the polls feeling pessimistic, they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on doom and gloom, Tusk said.

He claims Trump's campaign strategy falls into that pessimistic category, whereas Harris' messaging revolves around optimism and hope for the future.

Therefore, 'If you went to the to the polling place on a miserable day and you were truly undecided, from a pure subconscious standpoint, arguably, that would advantage Trump,' he said. 

In fact, it's a general rule of thumb that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said. But that's not because all Republicans run pessimistic presidential campaigns. 

'Lower voter turnout works better for Republicans,' Tusk said. 

That's because more people tend to vote Democrat - which is also why this party sometimes wins the popular vote, but not the electoral vote, he explained.

Some experts believe voting day conditions have swayed elections before, though this is less fact than political lore, Tusk cautions. 

During the 1960 election when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon, voting day was clear and sunny across the US. Some experts speculate that this gave the Democratic ticket an advantage. 

And in 2000, when George W. Bush ran against Al Gore, election day was rainy in Florida - the deciding state for this election. 

The bad weather lowered voter turnout in some strongholds for Gore, such as Pensacola. This may have played a role in securing the presidency for Bush. 

But the US is huge, and weather varies widely across the country on any given day. So how can localized weather events sway an entire election?

'Ultimately, it's because of the Electoral College,' Tusk explained.

'The US does not determine the president by who wins the most votes. It determines who wins by 270 Electoral College votes, which are allocated by state,' he said.

Election day weather in the seven swing states - Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada - is really 'the only weather that matters,' he said. 

That's why Hurricane Helene could prove to be a key player in this election.

The storm made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on September 26. 

Of the six southeastern states that it impacted, North Carolina took the brunt of the devastation, and also happens to be the only affected swing state.

About half of the total deaths occurred in North Carolina, which was battered by torrential rain, widespread flooding and high winds. 

State officials have reported 96 deaths related to the storm, and estimate that Helene caused at least $53 billion in damages and recovery needs. 

As North Carolinians pick up the pieces of their homes, it's safe to assume that this will have a negative impact on voter turnout, though this remains to be seen, Tusk said.   

But how will the weather on election day influence voting throughout the US?

AccuWeather's lead long-range weather expert, Paul Pastelok, gave DailyMail.com a preliminary forecast for election day across the country.

The Northeast, Great Plains and Southwest regions are looking like they will have mild, dry weather on November 5, he said.

But other parts of the US could see less-than-ideal voting conditions.

There's a risk of showers and thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachian Mountains, and storms could become severe in the Tennessee Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley, Pastelok said.

Houston, Chicago, southeast Georgia and parts of Florida can also expect rain on election day. 

As for the risk of extreme weather, Pastelok will be keeping a 'very close eye' on a potential tropical storm currently brewing in the Caribbean - though it's too soon to say whether it will actually form, or impact the US. 

All of these predictions are preliminary and subject to change. 

The states expecting inclement weather - Mississippi, Tennessee, Ohio, Texas and Illinois - tend to swing red, and rain generally gives the Republican ticket a boost in votes.

But as for whether this could sway the election in Trump's favor, Tusk said it's unlikely, because none of them are swing states.

What's more, these states typically vote red anyway, so a slight Republican advantage in these locations will not shake up the election results.

But if that bad weather moves into North Carolina, 'it could be meaningful,' Tusk said.