Super El Niño breaks the temperature record months BEFORE its peak - as scientists warn it will be largest in at least 1,000 years

Super El Niño has broken temperature records months before it reaches its peak, experts have revealed.

The latest data shows the sea surface temperature at the heart of the phenomenon is now 3.05°C above the average for 1991–2020. This has already overtaken the 3.02°C record set in November 2015.

Scientists say it's now looking on track to be the largest in at least 1,000 years – with a possible peak of 4.1°C in November and December.

'This is remarkable, in part because of how early in the calendar year it is occurring,' climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote in a blog for Carbon Brief.

'El Niño typically peaks in the winter months, most commonly in November or December.

'Every strong El Niño on record has continued to strengthen after mid–September – and there is every reason to think that this one will as well.'

Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction at the Met Office, said: ‘We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event.

‘The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño.’

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate event in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather around the world and temporarily boosts global temperatures.

The current event has been underway since June and is expected to last into next year – and has been developing at unprecedented speeds.

A separate measure meteorologists use to track the phenomenon involves a 30–year rolling average as a reference which takes into account human–caused global warming.

This metric, called Niño 3.4, is also on the brink of breaking the record – and is just one–hundredth of a degree below the 2015 high.

'El Niño events are typically classed as "weak" when the Niño 3.4 anomaly reaches 0.5C, "moderate" above 1C, "strong" above 1.5C and "very strong" above 2.0C,' Dr Hausfather said.

'For this year's event, the Niño 3.4 anomaly has now reached 3.07°C, which puts it in a statistical tie with the record set on 18 November 2015, set during a 'very strong' El Nino event.'

It comes after a summer that has shattered temperature records around the world. The latest data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that August 2026 was the warmest August on record.

And global average temperatures for the first eight months of the year are already 1.22°C (2.2°F) above the average baseline.

'Since the start of June, El Niño's strength has been greater than any other year,' Dr Hausfather explained.

'In early September in both 1997 and 2015, anomalies were around 1.9°C – more than one degree below where they are this year.

'All strong El Niño events on record have continued to strengthen well into the winter – and the models are in near–unanimous agreement that this one will, too.

'If the forecast holds, the current event will peak between November and January at a level far beyond any event previously observed in the instrumental record.'

Yesterday experts said 2026 is set to be the hottest year on record, eclipsing the previous high set in 2024. Meteorologists say average temperatures are expected to continue to soar in the last few months of the year – and could make 2027 even hotter still.

'El Niño's effect on global temperatures typically lags rising ocean temperatures in the Pacific by several months, so most of the impact will be felt in 2027 rather than 2026,' Dr Hausfather cautioned.

Commenting on the update, TV meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said: 'It's official, the 2026 El Niño has broken a record for the highest ocean anomaly in 170+ years… incredibly reaching that threshold a full two months ahead of 2015's record.

'2026 is in a league of its own. We have two months left for this El Niño to continue to intensify. And it will.'

Brits have been told to prepare for a stormy autumn thanks to Super El Niño.

According to scientists, Brits should prepare for 'heavy rainfall and flooding' from as early as October.

'A strong El Niño is likely to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for the UK from October to December,' said Dr Amulya Chevuturi, senior hydroclimate scientist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.

'The North West is expected to be worse affected than the South East.'

A bit of rain might sound quite appealing following the months of relentless heat.

However, Professor Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards, warns that the stormy autumn will likely be followed by a bitterly cold winter.

'Powerful El Niños typically bring mild, stormy Autumns and early Winters to the UK, followed by bitter cold, although this isn't set in stone,' he said.