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2 months ago
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Despite appearances, Friday 13 2029 will be an extraordinarily lucky day for humanity, as an Empire State Building-sized asteroid skims by Earth.
Scientists now believe that space rock 99942 Apophis' close call with Earth could be the best opportunity to learn how to avoid a catastrophic asteroid collision.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has announced funding for the Rapid Apophis Mission for Security and Safety (Ramses) which will attempt to follow the asteroid during its flyby.
With Apophis rapidly approaching Earth, the ESA will need to launch its new spacecraft in just four years to make it to the asteroid in time.
But, if they can pull off this daunting task, watching how the Apophis reacts to Earth's gravity could reveal the secret to deflecting deadly asteroids.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has announced funding for the Rapid Apophis Mission for Security and Safety (Ramses) which will try to accompany the asteroid as it makes its flyby
Ramses (pictured) will attempt to observe how the asteroid is squished and pulled by the tug of Earth's gravity to learn more about how asteroids are affected by external forces
When astronomers discovered that Apophis was on a direct course towards Earth in 2004, the scientific community was understandably concerned.
Just 10 years ago, in 1994, scientists watched in awe as chunks of the Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet slammed into Jupiter with unbelievable force.
This raised the uncomfortable question of what humanity could do if Apophis made a similar collision with our own planet.
Thankfully it was discovered in 2021 that Apophis would miss Earth on its 2029 and 2036 flybys, but for many, the distance might be too close for comfort.
Apophis will pass by Earth at a distance of just 20,000 miles (32,000km) - equivalent to one-tenth the distance from Earth to the Moon.
At that distance, Apophis will be closer than the geostationary communication satellites and will be visible to the naked eye in clear, dark skies for around two billion people across much of Europe and Africa and parts of Asia.
The asteroid 99942 Apophis is predicted to pass by Earth in a close flyby on April 13, 2029. The asteroid will be so close that it will be visible to the naked eye on clear nights (stock image)
As shown in this diagram, the asteroid 99942 Apophis will skim by Earth at just 20,000 miles (32,000km) - one-tenth of the distance to the Moon
While that might seem like a terrifying prospect, it is a truly fantastic opportunity for science.
Dr Patrick Michel, director of research of the French National Centre for Scientific Research, says: 'There is still so much we have yet to learn about asteroids but, until now, we have had to travel deep into the Solar System to study them and perform experiments ourselves to interact with their surface.
'For the first time ever, nature is bringing one to us and conducting the experiment itself.'
During the closest moments of its flyby, Apophis will be close enough to Earth that it will start to be shaped by the planet's intense gravitational pull.
Dr Michel explains: 'All we need to do is watch as Apophis is stretched and squeezed by strong tidal forces that may trigger landslides and other disturbances and reveal new material from beneath the surface.'
The Ramses spacecraft will attempt to rendezvous with Apophis before it reaches its closest point to Earth and follow it throughout its journey.
After being discovered in 2004, radar images taken in 2021 (pictured) revealed that Apophis would not hit Earth but rather skim past at a distance close enough for the rock to be shaped by Earth's gravity
Then, using a suite of scientific equipment, Ramses will take the first ever recordings of what happens to an asteroid as it passes by Earth.
The spacecraft will conduct a thorough before and after survey of the asteroid's shape, surface, orbit, rotation, and orientation.
Importantly, by seeing how these change throughout the flyby, scientists will be able to learn how asteroids react to external forces.
That knowledge will be key to any future missions that aim to deflect dangerous asteroids from Earth's orbit.
Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's Planetary Defence Office, says: 'A reconnaissance mission would be launched first to analyse the incoming asteroid’s orbit and structure.
'The results would be used to determine how best to redirect the asteroid or to rule out non-impacts before an expensive deflector mission is developed.'
Just like NASA's Osiris-Rex mission (pictured), Ramses will attempt to approach Apophis to gather information about how the asteroid is changed by Earth's gravity
Space agencies around the world are already investigating ways that incoming space rocks can be diverted away from a hazardous course.
IN 2022, NASA's Dart Mission slammed a spacecraft into the side of the asteroid Dimorphos to see whether it would be moved by the impact.
Later this year, the ESA's planetary defence mission Hera will launch to investigate the aftermath of the collision.
However, Ramses will not be travelling to Apophis alone as NASA's own mission is already on its way to the asteroid.
Last year the space agency's Osiris-Rex mission successfully recovered chunks of rock from the 4.6 billion-year-old asteroid Bennu.
Having completed its original mission, NASA announced that the same spacecraft would now try to rendezvous with Apophis in 2029 under the new name Osiris-Apex.
NASA will also send the same spacecraft used in Osiris-Rex (pictured) to rendezvous with Apophis about a month after it passes by Earth to investigate the aftermath of its flyby
Osiris-Apex will arrive at Apophis about a month after it has passed by Earth which will allow scientists to study the aftermath of its flyby in greater detail.
However, the ESA says that the data gathered from Apophis is only part of how the mission will better prepare humanity against threats from space.
In order to get to Apophis before it reaches Earth the craft will need to launch in just four years - an extremely tight schedule by the standards of space travel.
Simply getting a craft into space quickly to learn more about an incoming asteroid could prove the difference between catastrophe and diverting the space rock in time.
Dr Moissl adds: 'Ramses will demonstrate that humankind can deploy a reconnaissance mission to rendezvous with an incoming asteroid in just a few years.
'This type of mission is a cornerstone of humankind’s response to a hazardous asteroid.'
