What role did X play in the 2024 elections?

(X)

The elections are over, and the face of the government will change as a government of national unity is put in place. There’s a lot of data and analysis of the elections but what has been most interesting is the effect of X (Twitter). 

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research on 31 May gave an overview of the election on X. By that day, South Africans had tweeted 1.01 million times during the election with only 115 000 unique authors. It is evident that X represents a minority voice, but it never feels that way. With many traditional media outlets, political leaders and political analysts, X became the home for many political junkies. It was also filled with dissenting voices who skewed the perception of various political parties and their influence in South Africa. 

According to the data, the top-mentioned political party was the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), with the ANC coming in second and the Democratic Alliance (DA) in third. Surprisingly ActionSA and Rise Mzansi were fourth and fifth respectively on the list of top mentions on X. When comparing this to the election results, one might have assumed that these parties — barring the ANC, which was being unseated from government — would show some growth in this election. For Rise Mzansi, it was expected to increase by at least 1% to 2%.The same was expected for ActionSA, which had a good showing in the local elections in 2021, but it saw a decrease in support in 2024. Both the EFF and the DA experienced a decrease or stagnation compared to the previous election, with the DA performing similarly to 2019 and the EFF seeing a decrease of about 1% to 2%. 

Looking at the most mentioned leaders, ActionSA’a Herman Mashaba, was the third most mentioned leader. Gayton Mackenzie, the leader of the Patriotic Alliance (PA), was fifth, followed by Build One South Africa’s (Bosa’s) Mmusi Maimane. These leaders had a strong presence on X, yet they failed to achieve the same in the elections. Besides the PA, which had a successful election finishing above 2%, the other parties had poor showings, many falling below the expectations they placed on themselves. The question is: how do we decide the importance of social media when it seems to have little effect on people even though it reached more than 11 billion impressions? 

The claims of election rigging and that parties’ votes were stolen were partially created by the skewed perception that the party had influence over the masses when, in reality, they had a large influence over a minority voice. This not only allows for untrue and negative sentiments to be shared without any fact-checking but also causes individuals to overvalue the influence their party has on the public. 

There is a need for an evaluation, and regulation, of the conversations on social media. As we learned with both the 2021 unrest in South Africa and the storming of Capitol Hill in the United States, politicians and political parties have the ability to mobilise their masses if they can control the narrative on social media. Thus, we need to hold accountable those who promote insurgence or threaten our democracy. 

This is not to say all is bad on X. It can be a space where many people can participate in vigorous debate about policy, politics and other events that affect South Africa. But it needs to be done in moderated forms and the importance of fact-checking and evidence-based debates should be prioritised. With more people claiming to be  political analysts and the ability to buy verification, it has become increasingly difficult to separate the facts from the noise. But there is hope because artificial intelligence systems continue to develop to detect manipulated information on social media. 

Therefore in evaluating the impact of X on these elections, it can be assumed that, first, it does not represent the majority of South Africans. Second, despite this, it has the ability to sway and create narratives that are harmful to democracy but unlikely to lead to actual mobilisation in the voting process. 

South Africa is experiencing a steady decrease in voter participation, so it is important that we continue to use social media in a way that encourages debate and discussion.

Khumo Kumalo is the founder of Misunderstood and a student at Morehouse College, studying political science. He is the author of the newsletter “94 was Misunderstood” which unpacks social, identity and economic issues in South Africa.