How scientists correctly 'guessed' the new Pope: Study identified Robert Prevost as the strongest name in the Conclave - before his appearance on the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica

Catholics around the world rejoiced on Thursday as the new Pope was revealed following the death of Pope Francis. 

Chicago-born Robert Prevost – to be known as Pope Leo XIV – became Francis' successor after two days of voting inside the Sistine Chapel. 

The 69-year-old Pontiff speaks five languages, spent decades working in Latin America and Europe, and has a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics. 

Dubbed the 'Latin Yankee' by the Italian press, he's a far cry from the more traditional papal image – which is perhaps why bookies and AI alike failed to correctly determine the result. 

However, a team of scientists claim to have managed to do so using network science – the academic field which studies vast and complex networks. 

In an exhaustive study published online, they analysed 'the network of the conclave' to correctly find the successor to Pope Francis before his announcement. 

Study author Leonardo Rizzo, PhD candidate and data scientist at Bocconi University, said on X: 'We "guessed" the Pope using network science.

'We relied on three criteria that determine the “prominence” of a cardinal in the ecclesiastical network.' 

When a Pope dies or resigns, cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote in the upcoming papal election (the 'conclave'). 

Voting takes place by secret ballot under Michelangelo’s famous painted ceiling at the sacred Sistine Chapel in Vatican City. 

Four rounds of balloting are taken every day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote – and a new Pope is chosen. 

The final ballots are burned with chemicals that produce white smoke which emanates from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, as seen on Thursday. 

The Italian researchers call this 'the most classic of rituals where mystery and spirituality intertwine with history'. 

There's no doubt that the process of electing the Pope is a secretive one, aware from the glare of the world's public and media. 

Behind the closed doors of the Conclave, dynamics are at play that resemble those of a presidential election or the appointment of a CEO by a board of directors, they say.

'Even in the church, as in any human organization, relationships matter,' said study author Giuseppe Soda, professor of social network analysis at Bocconi University.

'The more connected, listened to, and central an individual is in the flow of information, the more likely they are to become a unifying figure.'

The experts analysed interpersonal relations between the papal conclave, the gathering of the College of Cardinals convened to appoint the Pope.

This let them work out who works with whom and in what contexts, strong bonds of 'loyalty and recognition' within members, and 'informal relationships' as inferred from media sources. 

They created a map of ecclesiastical power capable of anticipating the strongest names from the College of Cardinals – with Robert Prevost (Pope Leo XIV) emerging as the key figure in their metrics of 'status'. 

In this metric, he ranked ahead of Lazzaro You Heung-sik from South Korea, Arthur Roche from the UK and Jean-Marc Aveline form France. 

However, for two other metrics – 'information control' and 'coalition building capacity' – they picked other candidates (Anders Arborelius from Sweden and Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, respectively). 

'The elected Pope scored first in our metrics of Status (eigenvector centrality),' added study author Leonardo Rizzo on X. 

'While we weren't try to "guess", our aim was to show that a robust methodology, grounded in sound theory, can illuminate even the most obscure corners of human behavior and organizational dynamics.' 

The trio insist they are 'scientists, not bookmakers' and the election is the result of 'many variables' including 'spiritual inspiration' and diplomatic skills. 

'The election of the Pope remains a process steeped in sacredness that commands great respect,' said Professor Soda. 

'Science, in this case network science, can only contribute to improving our understanding of the human processes that accompany it.' 

Researchers outline their full results in a webpage published May 8 on the Bocconi University website.