Hurricane warning issued as models show storm Erin taking ominous turn in the Atlantic

A hurricane warning has been issued in the Atlantic Ocean as Tropical Storm Erin continues to strengthen while moving west across the open sea.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued the alert at 5:00am ET, noting that it applies to ships and mariners, as Erin is forecast to reach hurricane strength within the next 36 to 48 hours. 

Sustained winds are forecast to reach 80 mph with gusts up to 98 mph within the next day and a half, producing very rough seas up to 20 feet. 

Winds could strengthen further to 98 mph with gusts of 121 mph over the next two days, reaching Category 3 status.

Erin is moving west at about 17 mph, guided by a high-pressure system to the north, and is expected to turn slightly west-northwest later tonight and continue that path into the weekend. 

While the NHC is uncertain about Erin's impact on the US, meteorologist Noah Bergen shared a new projection for the next eight days, showing it taking a turn northwest and unleashing hurricane-force gusts over Cape Hatteras.

'Example why we need to stop writing off Erin having some impact on the US -- a recurve remains the expectation, but how close that recurve happens is still very much an open-ended question,' Bergen shared on X.

The predicted path to North Carolina is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. 

Known for its high accuracy, the ECMWF model utilizes advanced dynamical forecasting techniques, integrating real-time data such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), atmospheric pressure patterns and satellite imagery. 

This model is widely respected for its ability to predict hurricane trajectories and intensity up to 10 to 15 days in advance, making it a key tool for tracking Erin's potential recurve path and its impact on the US East Coast.

However, more conservative models show Erin curving north along the eastern coast and moving out to sea by August 21.

Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay, said that the latest forecast models mostly agree that Erin will pass safely east of North Carolina. 

'But the Euro and Euro AI model - while still offshore - are too close for comfort,' he shared on X. 

'That's because they track further south initially and make the turn a little later.' 

While this closer path is not the most likely scenario, it could happen, so residents should be ready in case Erin passes near the Outer Banks, said Berardelli.

Erin is located approximately 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the West Indies, moving 17mph west.

'This general motion is expected to continue today, with a west-northwestward motion beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend,' the NHC said. 

'On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.' 

The NHC predicts it will start producing maximum sustained winds of 80mph on Friday and gusts up to 98mph, deeming it a Category 1 hurricane.

Forecasters remain confident that Erin 'will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.' 

AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned that 'since the trend has been further south, that does increase the chance slightly of a US landfall.' 

'I still think the most likely scenario is a track somewhere between the Outer Banks [of North Carolina] and Bermuda,' DaSilva told Newsweek.

Even if the storm does not make a direct hit on the US, seas and surf will pose serious threats to coastal areas, AccuWeather warned.

The most likely track will keep Erin a few hundred miles off the US coast, but a westward shift of the Bermuda High, combined with a cold front and a dip in the eastern US jet stream, could push the storm farther west.

Meteorologists said this would increase the risk of strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding in ocean-facing areas such as eastern North Carolina, Long Island, and southeastern New England.

'Interests along the East Coast of the US, the Bahamas and in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin, as a shift in the track could bring direct impacts to these areas,' DaSilva said.

Erin has already left a path of destruction as the storm unleashed deadly floods over the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday, killing seven people.