 (1).png){kind=spacer}
10 hours ago
1
Scientists say there's a one in three chance we're alone in the universe – and will never make contact with aliens.
In a new study, Dr Veres Antal, associate professor of mathematics at the Hungarian University of Agriculture, arges that Earth might be in the 'Solitude Zone'.
The Solitude Zone is a statistical window where the probability of exactly one civilization of our technological level is higher than both having multiple such civilizations or none at all.
According to the expert's calculations, in the most optimistic scenarios our chances of being in a Solitude Zone are almost zero.
However, in a more realistic scenario, there is almost a one in three chance that humanity is the only advanced civilisation in the cosmos.
'The probability of solitude strongly depends on the complexity level in question,' the expert explains in his paper.
'For simple life, solitude is virtually impossible.
'Whereas for extremely advanced civilizations, it may become the dominant statistical expectation.'
Hopes of finding alien life have been dashed as a scientist claims that Earth might be in the 'Solitude Zone' (stock image)
Based on the probability that a civilisation of given complexity would emerge (X axis), scientists can calculate the chances that they are the only civilisation in existence (Y axis)
One of the biggest challenges for astronomers trying to understand our place in the universe is to solve the so–called 'Fermi Paradox'.
This questions why, given the estimated 200–400 billion stars and at least 100 billion planets in our galaxy, there have been no signs of alien life.
Astronomers have already put forward countless possible solutions to the Fermi Paradox, which generally either claim that life is much rarer than we think or that advanced aliens are hiding from us.
Dr Antal's strategy, however, is to approach the Fermi Paradox as a problem about probability.
In his paper, published in the journal Acta Astronautica, he argues that there is a set of scenarios in which a civilisation being alone is the most likely outcome – dubbed the Solitude Zone.
For any civilisation, we can actually work out the odds that they are in the solitude zone from three factors: the number of planets in the universe, how complex that civilisation is, and the probability that a civilisation of this complexity would exist.
Of these three factors, it is the last condition, which Dr Antal calls the emergence probability, that can vary the most widely.
The Solitude Zone is a statistical window where the chances of there being exactly one lifeform of a given complexity are greater than the odds that multiple lifeforms exist or none do at all (stock image)
And for a civilisation to find itself in the Solitude Zone, the emergence probability needs to be just right.
The conditions for life need to be common enough that at least a few lifeforms emerge, but not so common that multiple advanced civilisations exist at the same time.
According to Dr Antal's calculations, there is a 29.1 per cent chance that we are in the Solitude Zone.
While that might sound high, it is not all bad news for scientists trying to find alien life.
The more advanced a civilisation becomes, the more likely it is that they are the only species of that complexity in the universe.
However, for a civilisation as complex as humanity, there is no scenario in which there is more than a 50 per cent chance of being in a Solitude Zone.
Even in the so–called 'Critical Earth' scenario, where the probability of being in a Solitude Zone peak, there is only a 30.3 per cent chance that humanity is alone.
So, the odds are still in our favour that humanity is not the only advanced species out there in the universe.
WHAT IS THE FERMI PARADOX?
The Fermi Paradox questions why, given the estimated 200-400 billion stars and at least 100 billion planets in our galaxy, there have been no signs of alien life.
The contradiction is named after its creator, Italian physicist Enrico Fermi.
He first posed the question back in 1950.
Fermi believed it was too extraordinary that a single extra-terrestrial signal or engineering project has yet to be detected in the universe — despite its immense vastness.
Fermi concluded there must a barrier that limits the rise of intelligent, self-aware, technologically advanced space-colonising civilisations.
This barrier is sometimes referred to as the 'Great Filter'.
Italian physicist Enrico Fermi devised the so-called Fermi Paradox in the 1950s, which explores why there is no sign of alien life, despite the 100 billion planets in our galaxy
If the main obstacle preventing the colonisation of other planets is not in our past, then the barrier that will stop humanity's prospects of reaching other worlds must lie in our future, scientists have theorised.
Professor Brian Cox believes the advances in science and engineering required by a civilisation to start conquering the stars will ultimately lead to its destruction.
He said: 'One solution to the Fermi Paradox is that it is not possible to run a world that has the power to destroy itself.
‘It may be that the growth of science and engineering inevitably outstrips the development of political expertise, leading to disaster.'
Other possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox include that intelligent alien species are out there, but lack the necessary technology to communicate with Earth.
Some believe that the distances between intelligent civilisations are too great to allow any kind of two-way communication.
If two worlds are separated by several thousand light years, it's possible that one or both civilisations would become extinct before a dialogue can be established.
The so-called Zoo hypothesis claims intelligent alien life is out there, but deliberately avoids any contact with life on Earth to allow its natural evolution.
